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Only a theory
Inițiatorul discuției: Oliver Walter
Miguel Carmona
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Where does "observation" end? Dec 14, 2013

Samuel Murray wrote:

In scientific terms, "observation" means "what you can see" (or hear, or detect, or observe). You can only observe something while it happens. You can't observe evolution (or any event or process that took place long ago or over a long period of time, during which time no-one was observing it).


Samuel,

I am a little confused by that statement.

Doesn't the very fact that you exist prove that at one point your parents did something so you got conceived? Did we have to witness your parents do it for us to prove that they actually did it?

Don't ashes prove the previous presence of fire?

This has nothing to do with whether I am for or against evolution, it is the limited description of "observation". Observed results, effects, consequences of previous events do not count towards proving the occurrence of those events?

It would seem to me that something is missing somewhere...

(Joke: The body showed 27 stabbing wounds, 4 of which lethal; suicide is suspected.)


 
Samuel Murray
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@efreitag Dec 14, 2013

efreitag wrote:
It's not the job of natural science to prove hypotheses (or theories, if you want). Quite the contrary, it's their job to disprove them.


I've mulled over this statement of yours and tried to see it in various lights, but I can't quite get my head around it. I don't think I agree with it.

The logical conclusion of what you're saying is that scientists dream up fantasies and then set about to disprove them, and when they can't disprove them, they accept the fantasies as fact.

Apart from that, evolution can be observed even in the narrow definition of the word that you seem to use (Oliver has already quoted relevant statements).


I am not going to discuss the theory of evolution here (even if Oliver did so, and then said that he shouldn't have). For me, this thread is about linguistics. Whether evolution is actually true or false is not the issue here.

Evolution theory is a "theory" in sense 1 of the original post:
* A scheme or system of ideas or statements held as an explanation or account of a group of facts or phenomena (yes!);
* a hypothesis that has been confirmed or established by observation or experiment (yes!),
* and is propounded or accepted as accounting for the known facts (yes!);
* a statement of what are held to be the general laws, principles, or causes of something known or observed (yes!).


Okay, but let's evaluate whether general creationism is also a theory in sense 1 of the original post:

* A scheme or system of ideas or statements held as an explanation or account of a group of facts or phenomena; (yes, absolutely)
* a hypothesis that has been confirmed or established by observation or experiment, (no, not really)
* and is propounded or accepted as accounting for the known facts; (yes, by 20% of Europeans, and by 40% of Americans)
* a statement of what are held to be the general laws, principles, or causes of something known or observed. (yes, if you're a believer)

==

In your first post, you said:

German uses the same both definitions (haven't looked it up, though). While creationists could use this for their purposes in German as well, I agree with Riccardo: It doesn't happen, because there aren't any of them here (at least not in any significant number, and if there were, they wouldn't be taken seriously).


Fifteen million Germans are confident that evolution is pure fiction. Seven million Germans are not sure about whether evolution is fact or fiction. Is that what you mean by "not in any significant number"? (-: I think there can be no doubt that "such an argument" would be taken seriously by a large number of Germans.

The question (that Oliver asks, also) is whether the German word(s) for "theory" can be used (misused) by anti-evolutionists to discredit or downplay evolution, in the same way as it is done in English. And I don't think you or Richard have answered the original question. The question is not whether German speakers are as gullible as English speakerrs but whether the German words can be used with the same effect as the English words.


 
Neil Coffey
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Meaning of 'theory' Dec 14, 2013

LilianBNekipelo wrote:
The theory of evolution has never be proven beyond the reasonable doubt. It it is stll just a theory in the second sense, even though it is often being presented as an axiom -- a theory in the first sense. You made yourself very clear in your first post.


Whatever people's personal beliefs, it's important not to miss the point that when *scientists* use the word "theory" to refer to evolution, they really are meaning it in the first sense of "framework of explanation that accounts for evidence and makes predictions" (the same sense of "theory" as in "theory of gravity", "wave theory" etc). To scientists, there is no really no doubt about what this piece of terminology is referring to. It's not that they secretly don't think that evolution has reached the status of a scientific theory but are trying to pretend that it has: to them, it simply has reached that status and there's no ambiguity about the meaning of the term "theory" in this case.


[Edited at 2013-12-14 22:19 GMT]


 
Samuel Murray
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@Miguel Dec 14, 2013

Miguel Carmona wrote:
Doesn't the very fact that you exist prove that at one point your parents did something so you got conceived? Did we have to witness your parents do it for us to prove that they actually did it?


The difference is that you're arguing from a perspective of known cause. You already know where babies come from. If you see a baby, you can safely say "the baby was born" and you can safely say "the baby had a mother and a father", because you already know where babies come from.

But... what if you didn't know where babies came from? If you had no idea where babies came from, then the fact of the baby's existence would not alone have proven to you where babies come from.

And if you already know where babies come from (they come from kindergartens, as anyone who cares to spend an afternoon in any village, town or city can easily observe), then I have no doubt you would find it very hard to believe someone who comes along and tells you that babies actually come from a very different place, floating for months in a bag of water and finally exiting through a hole that (from your experience and measurements) is much smaller than the baby itself.



 
Erik Freitag
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@Samuel Dec 14, 2013

Samuel Murray wrote:

efreitag wrote:
It's not the job of natural science to prove hypotheses (or theories, if you want). Quite the contrary, it's their job to disprove them.


I've mulled over this statement of yours and tried to see it in various lights, but I can't quite get my head around it. I don't think I agree with it.

The logical conclusion of what you're saying is that scientists dream up fantasies and then set about to disprove them, and when they can't disprove them, they accept the fantasies as fact.


I'm of course generalising a bit here. Of course, scientists will make experiments and try to show that a theory is correct.

But when push comes to shove, it's like I said, though scientists usually don't "dream up fantasies", but make "educated guesses" to find a theory. As long as a theory a) explains what happens, b) makes correct predictions for the future and c) is useful, they will accept it not as a fact, but as a a theory (in sense 1 of the OP).

You can never prove a theory right, because you can't be sure that it won't fail under certain circumstances (cf. Newton). But you can try and prove a theory wrong and, if you've been succesful, find a better one (until that one's proven wrong in turn) - that's what brings progress in (natural) science.

In that sense, it's correct to say that evolution theory hasn't been proved. It just explains what happens very accurately and elegantly, it makes correct predictions for the future (this isn't very obvious in the case of evolution, but possible - bacteria etc.), and a whole lot of highly skilled scientists haven't up to now been able to find a fault in it. Hence, chances are that this theory is an extremely good and accurate description of the reality. This doesn't mean that one day, some competent scientist won't be able to make Darwin share Newton's fate, so that evolution theory like classical gravity still is an extraordinarily accurate description of the reality, but less so under some special circumstances.


Okay, but let's evaluate whether general creationism is also a theory in sense 1 of the original post:

* A scheme or system of ideas or statements held as an explanation or account of a group of facts or phenomena; (yes, absolutely)


Yes, granted.

* a hypothesis that has been confirmed or established by observation or experiment, (no, not really)


Indeed - not at all.

* and is propounded or accepted as accounting for the known facts; (yes, by 20% of Europeans, and by 40% of Americans)

20% resp. 40% are still minorities, but what's more important: The numbers will look completely different if you read it as "propounded or accepted among experts".

* a statement of what are held to be the general laws, principles, or causes of something known or observed. (yes, if you're a believer)

Granted.


In your first post, you said:

Fifteen million Germans are confident that evolution is pure fiction. Seven million Germans are not sure about whether evolution is fact or fiction. Is that what you mean by "not in any significant number"? (-: I think there can be no doubt that "such an argument" would be taken seriously by a large number of Germans.


I don't know how you've derived these figures (at first glance, they seem excessively high when looking at the Dawkins foundation website you quote), but I haven't checked it. Anyway, this indeed comes as a surprise to me - that leaves a lot of education to do.


The question (that Oliver asks, also) is whether the German word(s) for "theory" can be used (misused) by anti-evolutionists to discredit or downplay evolution, in the same way as it is done in English. And I don't think you or Richard have answered the original question.


Read again. Let me quote my first reply:

efreitag wrote:
German uses the same both definitions … . … creationists could use this for their purposes in German as well







[Bearbeitet am 2013-12-14 23:18 GMT]

[Bearbeitet am 2013-12-14 23:43 GMT]


 
Oliver Walter
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We can force evolution Dec 14, 2013

LilianBNekipelo wrote:
I absolutely agree with you, Samuel. Evolution is just a theory, that cannot be proven in an experimental way because we cannot make one species evolve into another in an experimental way, ...

Oh yes, we can! Or, at least we can come very close. See, for example, the story of Dmitry Konstantinovich Belyaev, who came close to forcing foxes to evolve into dogs (over ten generations):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Konstantinovich_Belyaev

And, we humans have made kale evolve into cabbages and broccoli.
http://indianapublicmedia.org/amomentofscience/the-first-broccoli/

The above show that evolution is possible; the existence of natural variation (offspring are not identical to their parents) and some (even if only a small) degree of competition for survival (i.e. variations in the number of offspring produced) lead to the conclusion that it must occur.

I suppose I should not be surprised that this question about the word "theory" has virtually become a revealing debate about the validity of the theory of evolution.

Any contributions to the linguistic question, please?

Oliver


 
Oliver Walter
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Scientists try to disprove Dec 15, 2013

efreitag wrote:
It's not the job of natural science to prove hypotheses (or theories, if you want). Quite the contrary, it's their job to disprove them. That's one thing that distinguishes a natural scientist from a mathematician, who actually can prove a statement in a way that this proof will be true eternally.

But it is the job of scientists (as you wrote a bit later) to invent these hypotheses (using their observations, their tests, and their imagination) - otherwise there won't be much to try to disprove!
A natural scientist will always have to check his hypothesis/theory against nature. If any contradiction is found, the theory has to be adopted or replaced by a better one.

Just so: Karl Raimund Popper (book: "Conjectures and Refutations. The growth of scientific knowledge") said that for a theory to be scientific, it has to be falsifiable, i.e. there is some conceivable observation that, if it occurs, would show the theory to be false. If, in trying to falsify (i.e. disprove) a theory, you do not succeed, you can increase your confidence that it is correct. Some theories have been made and utterly refuted, e.g. that the world is made of 4 elements: earth, air, fire, water. Some have been made and refuted but shown to be (for many purposes, accurate) special cases of the later more general, unfalsified, theories (e.g. Newton's laws and Einstein's later theories - they all agree for the relatively low speeds and masses encountered here on earth). Newton's laws of motion are not exactly strictly correct but they are accurate enough to have got us to the moon in 1969. (No, not a debate about whether humans have really been to the moon, please!)

Oliver

[Edited at 2013-12-15 00:39 GMT]


 
Triston Goodwin
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Is there an option C? Dec 15, 2013

This has certainly been an interesting read!

I would agree that the choice of words can be misleading and open doors to debates that maybe shouldn't exist. I wonder if this is a fault of the languages in question, and how it could be corrected. Maybe a change is needed in order to more accurately describe the "theories." Pattern jumps to mind...

I am a religious person, but I must also recognize evidence that does not coincide with my beliefs. I also understand that my
... See more
This has certainly been an interesting read!

I would agree that the choice of words can be misleading and open doors to debates that maybe shouldn't exist. I wonder if this is a fault of the languages in question, and how it could be corrected. Maybe a change is needed in order to more accurately describe the "theories." Pattern jumps to mind...

I am a religious person, but I must also recognize evidence that does not coincide with my beliefs. I also understand that my religious sources come from very old, very translated, materials that may not always be completely accurate. I do not believe that this recognition dulls my religious views, but often enhances them. After all, my religious intentions are the same as my scientific ones, to find answers.

What would the world be like if there was one, perfect, language?
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LilianNekipelov
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You cannot change one spieces into another Dec 15, 2013

Oliver Walter wrote:

LilianBNekipelo wrote:
I absolutely agree with you, Samuel. Evolution is just a theory, that cannot be proven in an experimental way because we cannot make one species evolve into another in an experimental way, ...

Oh yes, we can! Or, at least we can come very close. See, for example, the story of Dmitry Konstantinovich Belyaev, who came close to forcing foxes to evolve into dogs (over ten generations):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Konstantinovich_Belyaev

And, we humans have made kale evolve into cabbages and broccoli.
http://indianapublicmedia.org/amomentofscience/the-first-broccoli/

The above show that evolution is possible; the existence of natural variation (offspring are not identical to their parents) and some (even if only a small) degree of competition for survival (i.e. variations in the number of offspring produced) lead to the conclusion that it must occur.

I suppose I should not be surprised that this question about the word "theory" has virtually become a revealing debate about the validity of the theory of evolution.

Any contributions to the linguistic question, please?

Oliver


I am sorry, but you cannot, at this stage of the development of the science. You can change some traits in a species, but you cannot create a bird out of a lizard. Also, there have been some new discoveries that uncovered human DNA from about 300,000 years before it was originally thought that Homo sapins first appeared on the Earth -- from a period preceding the Pitecantropus.

Evolution might be possible -- I am not saying: No, but we don't know what caused it -- we have absolutley no clue, form what I see. As to the foxes -- he just created milder foxes, apparently (unless he added some tranquilizers to their diet), not dogs.

[Edited at 2013-12-15 11:51 GMT]


 
Samuel Murray
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@Oliver Dec 15, 2013

Oliver Walter wrote:
And, we humans have made kale evolve into cabbages and broccoli.
http://indianapublicmedia.org/amomentofscience/the-first-broccoli/


Since you insist on making this discussion about evolution per se and not about the linguistics of it, allow me to respond to your post until such time as this thread is locked.

The source used for the report in the URL you mention is a book called "Shadows of Forgotten Ancestors" by Carl Sagan. In chapter four of that book, this single, lone mention of broccoli is made:

Consider the diverse specializations that, through artificial selection, we’ve generated in dogs—greyhounds and borzois for speed, to outrun the wolves; collies for herding sheep; beagles, pointers, and setters for hunting; Labrador retrievers for helping fishermen gather their nets; guide dogs for the blind; bloodhounds for tracking criminals; terriers for worrying prey out of burrows; mastiffs for guard duty; and the original Pekinese (of which only a dwarf remnant remains) for war. We did all that, in only a few thousand years, by meddling with the sex lives of dogs. We evolved cauliflower, rutabaga, broccoli, brussels sprouts, and the now common and luxuriant cabbage from the sorry wild cabbage (these vegetables, like the different breeds of dogs, remain interfertile).

Despite the fact that Sagan's book come with scores of footnotes and cited references for all chapters, the broccoli factoid is not referenced. We have no idea where Sagan got that information. Fortunately, Sagan uses a googleable word: interfertile. Using it, we find that the case of broccoli is actually considered quite unique and does not represent the norm.

Besides, interfertile evolution is not contested by creationists.

See, for example, the story of Dmitry Konstantinovich Belyaev, who came close to forcing foxes to evolve into dogs (over ten generations):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Konstantinovich_Belyaev


Read it again, very carefully.

Belyaev discovered something about domestication, while working with foxes. What he discovered about domestication is likely also true of dogs. The article does not say that Belyaev had or almost had evolved dogs from foxes. Belyaev simply discovered something about domesticated foxes that he believes might also be true of dogs (namely that some of the traits of dogs, such as spotty coats, floppy ears, etc, are an unintended but accompanying result of selective breeding for other traits).

If I remember correctly (from what I've read about this a few years ago), Belyaev tried to domesticate foxes because he wanted to breed them for the fur trade, but the venture was a failure in the end, because it turns out that while domestication does lead to tamer, more manageable animals, it also leads to traits that made their coats unsuited for the fur trade.


[Edited at 2013-12-15 11:56 GMT]


 
Katia Perry
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My view from Brazil Dec 15, 2013

As far as I know, in Brazil we don't have the creationism as in the USA. The Christians (including me) believe in God, but we accept that the Creation described in the Bible is an allegory that doesn't exclude the Darwin's theory. So, for us, the word theory in "Darwin's theory" has the same meaning as in Einstein's "theory of Relativity".

I mean, all scientific theory is a proposal, that shall be proved by observation/experiments. In general, these theories come from theoretical ex
... See more
As far as I know, in Brazil we don't have the creationism as in the USA. The Christians (including me) believe in God, but we accept that the Creation described in the Bible is an allegory that doesn't exclude the Darwin's theory. So, for us, the word theory in "Darwin's theory" has the same meaning as in Einstein's "theory of Relativity".

I mean, all scientific theory is a proposal, that shall be proved by observation/experiments. In general, these theories come from theoretical explanations of a phenomenon or from results of experiments that seem to explain something. Any theory is valid (i.e., it's true) until an experiment shows it's not, or until it fails to explain an observed phenomenon, which it was expected to explain.

So, as Ricardo has said about Italy, in Brazil too, the presence of more than one meaning for the word “theory” does not cause problems.
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Oliver Walter
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Common ancestors Dec 15, 2013

LilianBNekipelo wrote:
... but you cannot create a bird out of a lizard.

"As we'll see in a later chapter, it is unfortunately necessary to explain, again and again, that modern species don't evolve into other modern species, they just share ancestors: they are cousins." [Dawkins, Chapter 2]
"It is the plain truth that we are cousins of chimpanzees, somewhat more distant cousins of monkeys, more distant cousins still of aardvarks and manatees, yet more distant cousins of bananas and turnips ..., continue the list as long as desired." [ibid. Chapter 1]
"The main point I want to draw out of domestication is its astonishing power to change the shape and behaviour of wild animals and the speed with which it does so. Breeders are almost like modellers with endlessly malleable clay, or like sculptors wielding chisels, carving dogs or horses, or cows or cabbages, to their whim. I shall return to this image shortly. The relevance to natural evolution is that, although the selecting agent is man and not nature, the process is otherwise exactly the same. This is why Darwin gave so much prominence to domestication at the beginning of On the Origin of Species. Anybody can understand the principle of evolution by artificial selection. Natural selection is the same, with one minor detail changed'" [ibid. Chapter 2].

The "minor detail" - natural or artificial selection - is what makes the artificial process hundreds of times faster than the natural one.]

[Edited at 2013-12-15 13:06 GMT]


 
LilianNekipelov
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First and second sense. Dec 15, 2013

Neil Coffey wrote:

LilianBNekipelo wrote:
The theory of evolution has never be proven beyond the reasonable doubt. It it is stll just a theory in the second sense, even though it is often being presented as an axiom -- a theory in the first sense. You made yourself very clear in your first post.


Whatever people's personal beliefs, it's important not to miss the point that when *scientists* use the word "theory" to refer to evolution, they really are meaning it in the first sense of "framework of explanation that accounts for evidence and makes predictions" (the same sense of "theory" as in "theory of gravity", "wave theory" etc). To scientists, there is no really no doubt about what this piece of terminology is referring to. It's not that they secretly don't think that evolution has reached the status of a scientific theory but are trying to pretend that it has: to them, it simply has reached that status and there's no ambiguity about the meaning of the term "theory" in this case.


[Edited at 2013-12-14 22:19 GMT]


Yes , I understand. You can prove gravity, though, while you cannot prove evolution with 100%, or even 90%, certainty. The gravitational theory is a theory in the first sense of the word: the evolutionary theory is a theory in the second sense, as of now, although it was presented as something axiomatic many years ago, when people were made to blindly believe it.


 
LilianNekipelov
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Why did they stop developing? Dec 15, 2013

Oliver Walter wrote:

LilianBNekipelo wrote:
... but you cannot create a bird out of a lizard.

"As we'll see in a later chapter, it is unfortunately necessary to explain, again and again, that modern species don't evolve into other modern species, they just share ancestors: they are cousins." [Dawkins, Chapter 2]
"It is the plain truth that we are cousins of chimpanzees, somewhat more distant cousins of monkeys, more distant cousins still of aardvarks and manatees, yet more distant cousins of bananas and turnips ..., continue the list as long as desired." [ibid. Chapter 1]
"The main point I want to draw out of domestication is its astonishing power to change the shape and behaviour of wild animals and the speed with which it does so. Breeders are almost like modellers with endlessly malleable clay, or like sculptors wielding chisels, carving dogs or horses, or cows or cabbages, to their whim. I shall return to this image shortly. The relevance to natural evolution is that, although the selecting agent is man and not nature, the process is otherwise exactly the same. This is why Darwin gave so much prominence to domestication at the beginning of On the Origin of Species. Anybody can understand the principle of evolution by artificial selection. Natural selection is the same, with one minor detail changed'" [ibid. Chapter 2].

The "minor detail" - natural or artificial selection - is what makes the artificial process hundreds of times faster than the natural one.]

[Edited at 2013-12-15 13:06 GMT]

What made them stop? What do you mean by "they only share ancestors".How did that come about?


 
Erik Freitag
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@Lilian Dec 15, 2013

LilianBNekipelo wrote:

Yes , I understand.


No, you don't. It's difficult to discuss these matters if you don't have at least some basic knowledge about i) evolution theory and ii) the scientific method in general.

LilianBNekipelo wrote:
You can prove gravity, though, while you cannot prove evolution with 100%, or even 90%, certainty.


Wrong again. You can't prove either of them. But both gravity (read: general relativity) and Darwin's evolution theory have withstood so many attempts to disprove them, that the broad scientific community currently accepts them as excellent descriptions of the reality, and will continue to do so until they are disproved.

LilianBNekipelo wrote:
the evolutionary theory is a theory in the second sense, as of now, although it was presented as something axiomatic many years ago, when people were made to blindly believe it.


And again, you're wrong. I don't know who told you people were made to blindly believe it. May I ask you from where you got this impression? Darwins theory is a prime example of a scientific theory presented to the scientific community for scrutiny.

With all due respect, I think some basic reading would help a lot here.





[Bearbeitet am 2013-12-15 15:29 GMT]


 
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